A Friday rebound, triggered by a big tech company’s earnings beat and a strong jobs report, shaved much of the week’s accumulated losses. To start the week, markets are taking a wait and see approach. Inflation data (CPI & PPI) will be reported later in the week, the debt ceiling debate (or lack of) continues, and the concerns about small/regional banking is certainly not over. On a special note, for those worried humanity, it appears AI isn't that great at picking horse races (yet). ChatGPT's Kentucky Derby picks failed to impress as a 15-1 odds horse, Mage, took the win!
The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.24%, while the Standard & Poor’s 500 lost 0.80%. The Nasdaq Composite Index was flat (+0.07%) for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, slipped 0.62%.1,2,3
Renewed regional bank concerns weighed on investor sentiment last week, despite the rescue of a troubled bank before the start of the trading week.
But worries were not isolated to regional banks. Secretary of the Treasury Janet Yellen commented that the federal government may hit its debt ceiling earlier than expected, heightened investor jitters over a potential technical default. The stock market also slipped in the wake of the latest rate hike decision by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC).
Solid earnings from one mega-cap tech firm and a strong employment report steadied investors, resulting in a Friday bounce that ended a volatile week on a positive note.
Fed Hikes Rates
Amid concerns in the regional bank sector and tightening credit conditions, the Fed elected to increase interest rates by 0.25%, citing elevated inflation and robust job gains. Investors were more focused, however, on what the Fed signaled about its plans since the expected rate hike.
The Fed indicated it may pause further rate hikes, suggesting that future decisions will be based on economic data and prevailing financial conditions. Following the announcement, interest rate traders assigned an 89% probability that rates would remain unchanged following the next meeting of the FOMC in June.4, 5
This Week: Key Economic Data
Wednesday: Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Thursday: Producer Price Index (PPI). Jobless Claims.
Friday: Consumer Sentiment.
Source: Econoday, May 5, 2023
This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings
Monday: PayPal Holdings, Inc. (PYPL), Skyworks Solutions, Inc. (SWKS), KKR & Co., Inc. (KKR)
Tuesday: Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. (APD)
Wednesday: Occidental Petroleum Corporation (OXY), The Walt Disney Company (DIS)
Source: Zacks, May 5, 2023
"If we would build on a sure foundation in friendship, we must love friends for their sake rather than for our own."
– Charlotte Brontë
Need Last Year's Tax Returns?
Help is available for taxpayers who need tax information for prior years but who did not keep copies of their returns. There are ways to get the information you need.
Keep in mind the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) recommends that taxpayers keep copies of their returns and any documentation for at least three years after filing:
Tip adapted from IRS.gov6
Being SMART about fitness goals
Are you putting exercise on the back burner? Make it a priority. To stick with a workout regimen, make regular physical activity one of your priorities. Here's where setting SMART goals can help.
Instead of saying you will "exercise more," state a SMART exercise goal. SMART stands for:
Specific: State the objective you wish to meet as precisely as possible: "I am going to commit to doing a full-body video workout several times a week.”
Measurable: Identify quantifiable criteria to allow you to measure your progress: “I am going to do this workout three times a week for at least 30 minutes each time. I will track my progress in my workout journal.”
Attainable: Your goal should be ambitious but not impossible: "I am committing to three times a week, not seven times a week, because it is realistic and achievable for me with my current schedule.”
Relevant: Your goals must align with your current circumstances and priorities: "I will do it to stay healthy and strong during these times and to feel less stressed.”
Time-bound: Allocate a specific period for completing your goal: "I will commit to this plan for a month. In 30 days, I will have had 12 workouts and will reassess my goal after that.”
I may be red, green, or yellow. Eat me, and you may stay a healthy fellow. My interior is white; I don't give off light. What am I?
Last week’s riddle: Two sailors stand on opposite sides of a boat. One looks west, and the other looks east – yet, they can both see each other clearly. How can this be? Answer: The sailors are looking inward (into the boat) while standing with their backs against the ship's sides.
Aurora Borealis, Lofoten islands, Norway
Footnotes and Sources
2. The Wall Street Journal, May 5, 2023
3. The Wall Street Journal, May 5, 2023
4. The Wall Street Journal, May 3, 2023.
5. CMEGroup.com, May 3, 2023
6. IRS.gov, 2023
7. Cleveland Clinic, February 7, 2023
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Weekly Market Insights: Friday Rally Trims Losses; CPI Report Next Week
May 08, 2023