This week gets started with Western Europe and the USA adopting stronger sanctions against Russia including baring certain Russian banks from using the Swift system. This is the global messaging system that typically facilitates any currency transfer. As it should, the crisis in Ukraine has taken the headlines from the focus on interest rate hikes here in the USA. Expect central bankers across the globe to move far slower than previous talk. Stock markets of course remain very volatile and despite closing out last week with a good rally, may have resumed a downtrend started back in January.
Some data points to consider: The average market bottom after a military incursion (Eight events), going back to the Iraq invasion of Kuwait, happened in 19 days and the markets lost just 7 percent. The average one-year return following the event was up 13.5 percent.
Investors rode a rollercoaster of emotions as rising hostilities at the Russian-Ukrainian border sent stocks sharply lower before a powerful late-week rally erased early losses.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average was flat (-0.06%), while the Standard & Poor’s 500 edged higher by 0.82%. The Nasdaq Composite Index gained 1.08% for the week. The MSCI EAFE index, which tracks developed overseas stock markets, lost an eye-catching 5.72%.1,2,3
The build-up to Russia’s eventual invasion of Ukraine triggered elevated market volatility, resulting in broad-based selling that sent the S&P 500 into correction territory as the holiday-shortened week of trading began.4
The sell-off culminated on Thursday morning following the overnight incursion of Russian troops into Ukrainian territory, though markets staged a powerful late-day recovery that coincided with President Biden’s announcing fresh sanctions against Russia. The afternoon rebound was remarkable, as the S&P 500 ended 1.5% higher after being down more than 2.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite closed 3.3% higher after dropping nearly 3.5% intraday. Thursday afternoon’s momentum continued into Friday as stocks rallied to end the week in positive territory.5
Setting aside the more important aspects of the human cost and damage to world order, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine introduced an acute layer of uncertainty into many layers of the financial markets. The immediate repercussion was the impact on global economic recovery due to rising energy prices, which reduce consumers’ discretionary spending and saddle businesses with higher costs.
The inflationary impact of higher energy and other prices, along with the prospect of decelerating economic growth, also complicates the Fed’s strategy to guide interest rates higher. Already, the probability of a 50 basis point interest rate hike at the Fed’s March 2022 meeting seems less likely than it was just a week ago. Finally, Russia’s actions have raised new concerns over second-order effects that could further unsettle markets, such as a new round of supply-chain disruptions.
This Week: Key Economic Data
Tuesday: ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Manufacturing Index.
Wednesday: ADP (Automated Data Processing) Employment Report.
Thursday: Factory Orders. Jobless Claims. ISM (Institute for Supply Management) Services Index.
Friday: Employment Situation.
Source: Econoday, February 25, 2022
This Week: Companies Reporting Earnings
Monday: Lucid Group, Inc. (LCID), Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM).
Tuesday: Salesforce.com, Inc. (CRM), Target Corporation (TGT), Ross Stores, Inc. (ROST).
Wednesday: Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR), Snowflake, Inc. (SNOW).
Thursday: Broadcom, Inc. (AVGO), Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST), Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY), Marvell Technology, Inc. (MRVL), The Kroger Company (KR).
Source: Zacks, February 25, 2022
“Who are wise in love, love most, say least.“
– Alfred, Lord Tennyson
Have You Created Your IRS Online Account?
The IRS makes it easy to create an online account where you can view all kinds of account information, such as:
You can even make online payments and get a digital copy of the most recent transcript of your tax return.
* This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific, individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.
Tip adapted from IRS.gov6
A “Berry” Important Superfood
Not only are blueberries delicious, but they are also a powerful superfood that has many potential health benefits. They are low in calories, can be added to countless dishes, and are the perfect easy snack. Here are some benefits of blueberries, according to Healthline:
Tip adapted from Healthline7
You have a can of soda in your hand and someone tells you to drink the bottom half of it first. How can you do that?
Last week’s riddle: You go in through one hole, you come out through three holes. Once you're inside you're ready to go outside, but once you're outside you're still inside. What is it? Answer: A Sweater.
Amalfi Coast, Positano, Italy.
Footnotes and Sources
2. The Wall Street Journal, February 25, 2022
3. The Wall Street Journal, February 25, 2022
4. The Wall Street Journal, February 22, 2022
5. The Wall Street Journal, February 24, 2022
6. IRS.gov, July 26, 2021
7. Healthline.com, September 30, 2021
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Weekly Market Insights: Rocky Week After Russian Invasion
February 28, 2022